The Automotive Troublemaker w/ Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier

Presidential Buy/Sell Market, Huge Rivian Loan, Cheap Turkeys

Share episode

Shoot us a Text.

Warm up those appetites, folks. As we get ready to loosen our belts, the buy/sell market seems to be doing the same thing as the Trump era nears. We’re also talking about a gigantic but conditional loan from the government to Rivian, as well as cheaper turkeys for everyone this year.  


Show Notes with links:

  • The 2024 presidential election outcome is expected to rejuvenate dealership buy-sell activity, as regulatory rollbacks and economic optimism provide a favorable environment for acquisitions.
    • Dealers anticipate eased EV mandates and fuel economy standards, creating market stability.
    • Regulatory changes could improve dealership valuations, especially in California and CARB states.
    • Lower interest rates under Trump could simplify financing for buyers and boost car sales.
    • “It’s going to be the Roaring ’20s,” said Stuart McCallum of Withum.
    • “Trump is certainly bullish on business... I think the M&A market in the dealership world will follow suit,” said Mike Sims of Pinnacle Mergers & Acquisitions.
    • “Should California’s strict requirements get overturned... I would expect a significant increase in buyer demand,” said Erin Kerrigan of Kerrigan Advisors.


  • Rivian has locked in a $6.6 billion DOE loan to resume construction of its delayed Georgia factory, aiming to expand its EV production capacity and create jobs.
    • Rivian originally announced the $5 billion factory in 2021, aiming for 400,000 vehicles annually by 2024.
    • Faced with a cash crunch, construction paused, and plans shifted to build its R2 SUV in Illinois, saving $2.25 billion.
    • The Georgia factory, now slated for 2028, will employ 7,500 by 2030, supported by a $1.5 billion incentives package from Georgia.
    • The DOE loan aligns with federal efforts backing EV infrastructure, such as Ford’s $9.2 billion for battery plants.
    • "This federal support enables us to lay the groundwork for long-term growth," Rivian stated.


  • Thanksgiving dinner costs have dropped slightly this year, but they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
    • The average dinner for 10 people costs $58.08, a 5% decrease from 2023 but still 19% above pre-pandemic prices.
    • Turkey prices fell 6% to $25.67 for a 16-pound bird, thanks to lower demand despite a smaller turkey flock due to the avian flu.
    • Other items like milk (-14%), peas (-8%), and celery (-6.4%) saw price drops, but stuffing (+8%) and cranberries (+12%) rose.
    • Regional price disparities exist, with the South offering the cheapest dinners at $56.81 and the West the highest at $67.81.

Hosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email

Paul J Daly:

Oh, my goodness, what a great start to the can't even get my trigger patch.

Kyle Mountsier:

Can't get it. It's

Paul J Daly:

a double slammer. Oh, well, look, if you didn't think this show was live now, you know for sure,

Unknown:

today is Wednesday, November 22 the day before Thanksgiving, talking about presidential Buy, Sell markets, a huge rivian loan, cheaper turkeys for everyone. Cheap turkeys, cheap. Yeah, we'll

Kyle Mountsier:

talk a lot of stories around quote, unquote cheap.

Paul J Daly:

Oh yeah, we're gonna talk about that for sure. Third story, mayhem as usual. But today's is such a weird day. You drive into work, and I feel like most people that are usually on the roads on my way here aren't on the roads here there. Yeah, I don't know. Auto industry is working hard. Everyone that lives in a dealership is there?

Kyle Mountsier:

Yeah, no. It's like dealerships, a little bit of retail, and then everybody else. I back when I worked at the store, I used to, I like, craved these days, because there was something magical about feeling like you won, because you got to go faster to work, right? Oh, yeah, especially. But it's like, I win today. I actually, I'm the winner. The fact that I'm driving at, like, the speed limit is good, yeah, you know, we

Paul J Daly:

talked about it too. Like, these are the days where people showing up on the lot. They're really intentional, they're ready to buy something. So that's kind of a benefit as well. I would also think, and I don't know you would have to tell me, this does, like, lead traffic pick up when people are off, like, because they're around other people, they're gonna be around family. They're gonna see other cars, gonna be talking, not really just distracted watching. It's a lot of dogs and stuff, yeah,

Kyle Mountsier:

you kind of get that. You you get the feeling like lead traffic increase, because a lot of people will, like, roll out at about four today, or something like this, and then be it feels like another weekend, but a weekday when you roll in on Friday morning, right? Yeah, yeah. You know what I mean. I don't find it like busy

Paul J Daly:

Friday. I feel like Black Friday is kind of back from a from a traffic standpoint, at least it feels that way around the malls and around the shopping centers here in

Kyle Mountsier:

Syracuse. Oh, it's so back. I bet this year is going to be jam ridiculous. Yeah,

Paul J Daly:

it definitely. It just the festive vibes in general, feel like they've picked up this year. Yeah, I don't You're right. Why it feels like it feels like pre COVID Again, like people are out, people are the music's playing, and it's not annoying. I don't know.

Kyle Mountsier:

Yeah, that's a great way of putting it. I couldn't say it better myself.

Paul J Daly:

I know that's not annoying. What do we have? Oh, hey, just circle a little date on your calendar. December 19, we were having our fourth annual Year in extravaganza. This is something that we started four years ago. Is one of the first times we you and I ever did like a live thing together. Is amazing. You came to Syracuse. We rented out a speakeasy, and we put on a show. We had accoutre playing saxophone, a live band. We did the one in Nashville. We did the one in the studio last year. This year, we're gonna change it up a little more again. But the point really is always to put together something for the industry that has this, a bunch of industry experts, a bunch of people, you know and love, looking back a little bit, looking forward a little bit. It's just a great like, week before Christmas, little piece of content we try to make for you. So circle it. It'd be great if you could join us live for that on December 19. More details to come. Best place. Hey, if you don't follow us on LinkedIn, go to LinkedIn and follow us. Do that, please. Because we had so much good stuff driving on so much alright, and then shoot. We're off. We're off this weekend again. We're shooting another episode of more than cars next week for season two. This is number three, the third one we shot for season two. Another

Kyle Mountsier:

reason why to pay attention to LinkedIn, the the hot video that we dropped on the recap of our shoot last week at CMA. Like you're going to want to catch that, because it got me excited to watch the show that I got to help shoot. I

Paul J Daly:

know you're like, I was there, and it feels like, wow, yeah. So we're gonna be at Bozar Ford in St Augustine, Florida, which is not a bad place to be in December. Not about I heard, I've never been there. I'm excited. I bet it's beautiful. It is. It's

Kyle Mountsier:

gorgeous. All right, let's

Paul J Daly:

talk about some news today and get us going. 2024, presidential election outcome is expected to get this rejuvenate dealer, buy sell activities. Regulatory roadblocks and economic optimism are providing a favorable environment for acquisitions. Dealers are anticipating eased EV mandates and fuel economy standards, creating market stability that's always good for buy sells. Regulatory changes could improve dealership valuations, especially in California and carb states, where they have a lot of these regulations. Lower interest rates under Trump, could simplify financing for buyers and boost car sales. So our friend Stuart McCollum, of with them, we go way back. Actually. I texted him. Was like, hey, last minute, you want to be on the show this morning. He said, He says it's going to be the Roaring 20s. He pretty much said that the month that Harris was announced as the candidate, he's like, activity dried up. And this is something he said in the article. He said activity like, went to like, nothing. Everyone was like, Yeah, I don't know what to do about this. And then he said, as soon as it was clear that Trump. Won the election. He's, like, everybody got excited. And basically, you know, Trump is bullish on business, says Mike Sims of Pinnacle mergers and acquisitions. He says, I think the M and a market in the dealership world will follow suit. Our friend Aaron of Kerrigan advisor, said, Should California strict requirements get overturned, I would expect a significant increase in buyer demand. So a lot of people staying out of California because of

Kyle Mountsier:

this. This is really, I think this is cool. You know, consolidation has its pros and cons, right? But also there's, there's movement, you know, between, you know, consolidation or just moving assets and properties based on where you are at in the country. So it's not all consolidation. I think it's just good for the market to stay ready and move. You know, obviously, when you look at the interest rates in particular, I'm excited about the opportunities. You know, we talk with name out a lot, and we talk to, you know, their their aspiring young leaders, you know, I in the name ad side of things and and even talking to like Damon, who we've had a lot of interaction with when he purchased his dealership, and then went into a time very quickly after that, just a year after that, where interest rates were skyrocketing and you start to look at, like, what you expect to pay, or can pay, yeah, on even, like, from a monthly Rent or or monthly mortgage perspective on just the building in particular, and how that impacts the ability to be profitable, and as you see that come down, it just helps across the board, right for plan, interest, all that. So it just makes the access for entrepreneurial thinkers to get in or to buy, sell or do do all those things much more like ground level. Yeah.

Paul J Daly:

What a great thing, I think, for the industry, people being willing to move and shake, rearrange their strategies, get the stores they want, maybe move into some new markets. So good stuff. And thanks to our friends at auto mode news for putting that together and all of our friends for contributing. Stuart. Call me. We'll get you on the show. There you go. Stuart, there you go. Speaking of Stuart, I don't it has nothing to do with Stewart, yeah, all right. Speaking of R J scares big way. So, so after Liza, what was revisions? Deal with Volkswagen, 5.8 billion something like that, yep.

Kyle Mountsier:

So that sounds right, yeah. So

Paul J Daly:

rivian BW had a$5.8 billion like cash injection in the company now, rivian has announced they've locked a $6.6 billion condition, conditional Department of Energy loan to resume construction of its delayed Georgia factory, looking to expand its EV production capacity and create jobs. They originally announced the $5 billion factory in 2021 I guess prices have gone up, aiming for 400,000 vehicles by well, they're gonna miss this one by now. By this year, 2024 is almost over. Faced with the cash crunch, they paused construction, shifted plans to build the r2 SUV in Illinois, saving them about two and a quarter billion but the Georgia factory now slated for four years from now, 2028 will employ it's another election year. Employee, 7500 people. Sorry, I'm sorry to do that to you. You had to do that. People by 2030 supported by a $1.5 billion incentive package from Georgia. So Department of Energy loan is aligning with federal efforts backing EV infrastructure, such as Ford's $9.2 billion loan for battery plants. Rivian says this federal support enables us to lay the groundwork for long term growth. They got a lot of billions floating around there these days.

Kyle Mountsier:

Well, here's the thing you and I have you and I have kind of been bullish on on rivian, just because of, like, the look, the feel, the technology, it just, it's just like, it's a cool looking car, and they've done a good job at working with other legacy manufacturers, right, creating partnerships, and they've always had this idea of, like, being the skateboard that the industry sits on. So I think that this is really, you know, 7500 jobs for Georgia. I know a lot of people in Georgia were excited about it originally, because of the economic impact and obviously bringing a whole bunch of production from one of these new automakers into the US, right? I think it's great for the economy. It's great for Georgia and, you know, again, bullish because they're good looking cars. I

Paul J Daly:

still think, I mean, the apple rivian collab would be a hard one. I

Kyle Mountsier:

wish it was.

Paul J Daly:

I agree. It just makes sense. I don't know. We'll see speaking of cents, $10 debatable one, right,

Kyle Mountsier:

your money's gonna go a little bit further. Maybe you can invite that extra person to Thanksgiving dinner, because cost has have dropped slightly this year, but remains significantly higher than pre pandemic levels. All right, the average dinner for 10 people costs $58 5% decrease from 2023 but still 19% above pre pandemic prices. Y'all, you can't get a family of five to Chick fil A for 58 bucks. No, my family, you can't. Uh, Turkey prices fell 6% to $25.67 on average for a 16 pound bird. Thank. To lower demand despite a smaller Turkey flock due to the avian pollutant, you know, so with less less people trying to buy turkeys, other items like milk, peas, celery, stuffing, cranberries are all down anywhere between six to 14% there are some obvious regional disparities. The south, you know, we have the cheapest dinners and the west the highest. They are about 11 bucks. Higher up at $67.81

Paul J Daly:

Listen, I don't these things always get me, because I don't know if you've been to the grocery store lately, but I'm always leaving and I feel like I went through like, eight items or fewer lane and like, How is this $100

Kyle Mountsier:

Oh, no, all the time, yeah, like, I'd

Paul J Daly:

never get out of there without $100 granted, I have four kids, but still 15. Oh, I mean, I think this metric needs updating.

Kyle Mountsier:

We've been talking about this a while. Like it is, it's definitely higher price. I think that people are are changing the options which that they purchase, right? I'm hearing a lot more people not going traditional for the like, things that you would traditionally serve for Thanksgiving. Like, what

Paul J Daly:

are they doing? I

Kyle Mountsier:

mean, they're doing, like, I

Paul J Daly:

mean, what is their different? Potatoes, turkey, stuffing, if you're Italian, there's definitely pasta.

Kyle Mountsier:

But I mean, like, there's a lot of people that are just doing, like, completely other culture dinners, like, just friends that I know, right? So that's anecdotally artsy. You live in Nashville. I know I live in Nashville. I live in Nashville. Okay, get over it. Here's, here's. The other thing is, is actually just this morning I saw that it was announced that, I think late yesterday, the average gas cost, we've been talking about transportation a lot, the average gas cost for in the US, for the first time since 2021 are averaging under under$3

Paul J Daly:

what is, what is the cheapest gas in your area right now,

Kyle Mountsier:

I've seen like in the 270s Yeah, it was 287 is the average in Nashville. So, okay, wow,

Paul J Daly:

that's pretty low. The lowest we see up here is probably like two, I think I saw like 279, which is, which is pretty low for New York, but, yeah. I mean, hey, if we're low here, California is still 785, a gallon. But, you know, lost the turkey dinner, 67

Kyle Mountsier:

well. And, I mean, you know, like, vehicle prices are dropping as well. Yeah, everything's cool. Ready to Fly,

Paul J Daly:

yeah? You know, I

Kyle Mountsier:

think people are ready to buy stuff. I agree. So get while the getting is good, yeah,

Paul J Daly:

maybe you'll buy a dealership, I don't know, dealership, Turkey or a dealership, whatever it is, look from our team to yours. We hope you have an amazing Thanksgiving with your family, appreciating all the reasons that you work so hard. We'll see you here Friday morning.

Unknown:

Just

People on this episode

Contributor

Kyle Mountsier

Host
Contributor

Paul J Daly

Host