Automotive State of The Union

Top 150 Dealer Groups, Toyota’s Hybrid Demand, Job Market Uncertain For Grads

Share episode

Shoot us a Text.

Episode #1005: The biggest dealership groups continue their march toward market dominance while Toyota’s hybrid boom is pushing suppliers to the limit. Meanwhile, Gen Z graduates face a tough reality as government hiring freezes throw career plans into chaos.


Show Notes with links:

  • The biggest names in auto retail continued their dominance in 2024, with the top 150 dealership groups expanding their footprint and market share. Growth, acquisitions, and shifting strategies defined the rankings, showing how consolidation is shaping the future of the industry.
    • The top 150 groups sold over 4 million new vehicles in 2024, up 7.2% from the previous year, and now own 26.6% of all U.S. franchised dealerships, up from just 13.9% in 2011.
    • Holman made the biggest leap, climbing 17 spots to No. 15 after acquiring Leith Automotive Group.
    • Some of our other friends on the list: 140-DeMontrond, 134-Casa, 83-Sam Pack Auto Group, 80-Carter Myers Automotive, 70-DGDG, 60-Rohrman, 58-Bergstrom, 43–Ciocca, 32-Walser, 16-Ourisman
    • “The top 10 reported owning 10.5% of U.S. dealerships, continuing the trend of industry consolidation,” said Mary Raetz, director of the Automotive News Research & Data Center.


  • Toyota’s hybrid strategy is paying off—maybe too well. Soaring global demand for its gasoline-electric hybrids has outpaced supply, leaving customers facing long wait times and suppliers scrambling to keep up.
    • Wait times for Toyota hybrids range from 60 days in Europe to nine months in India.
    • Parts shortages, including key components from suppliers like Aisin and Denso, are causing production bottlenecks.
    • Toyota is ramping up output, including a $14B battery plant in North Carolina set to ship batteries in April.
    • Global hybrid sales nearly tripled over five years, hitting 16.1 million in 2024.
    • The surging demand has led to soaring dealership valuations in the US. According to Mercer Capital, Toyota dealerships in metro markets, particularly in Florida, can command valuation multiples as high as 10 times earnings in today’s market.


  • ​​The class of 2025 is stepping into a tough job market, with tech downturns, federal hiring freezes, and economic uncertainty making it harder than ever for new grads to secure stable careers. Many are rethinking their career plans as public sector opportunities shrink.
    • Government job applications nearly doubled in 2023, but hiring freezes have now put many positions on hold.
    • Some federal job offers have been rescinded, and funding-dependent industries like nonprofits and universities are also feeling the squeeze.
    • Economic shifts, including tariff concerns, have made companies hesitant to expand hiring.
    • Many students are prioritizing stability over passion, with some opting for private-sector jobs over public service roles.
    • "The job market just seems super unstable in almost any field," said Tulane sophomore Katie Schwartz,

Hosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email

Paul J Daly:

It is Monday, March, 31 last day of March. This is the automotive State of the Union. I'm Paul J Daly with Kyle Mountsier. Today we're talking about the top 150 dealer groups, Toyotas, hybrid demand and kind of a little bit of an existential crisis for Gen Z. As far as what career

Kyle Mountsier:

they're gonna pick, you mean, it's a career group growing into careers, and they're having existential crisises we never have this. Doesn't

Paul J Daly:

that happen every time you're that

Unknown:

there's big movies, millennials, they don't know what they're gonna do, yeah, Gen Y, they don't know what they're gonna do.

Paul J Daly:

We have some suggestions.

Kyle Mountsier:

We know some people. You know, last day the month on a Monday. Last day of the month on a Monday is the most confusing thing on the planet. It always is. Just know, like, if you're if anybody is not in a dealership, or you've never worked in a dealership, just know, right now, everybody's waking up to Monday going, Wait, oh, close. The month is fine. No, it's like, you gotta go, okay? It's like a carryover on the

Paul J Daly:

week, like another weekend day, yeah, it's gonna feel so strange without, without the day off on the other side, right? Maybe. How many days is it? Tulisot con,

Kyle Mountsier:

not enough, Never, not enough, and too much all at this

Paul J Daly:

never. Yeah.

Kyle Mountsier:

There it is. Yeah, we're, oh, my god, greatest showman there. 42

Paul J Daly:

we're gonna be in the late 30s by Wednesday. Oh, stop it. There's a couple that's crazy. Really need to get ordered like their day. Okay,

Kyle Mountsier:

we're not talking about this in the show real quick. And everybody go buy your soda con tickets and hotels. Just do that. Get it out of the way. You'll be done with it on a Monday. You'll be fine. We're not talking about this in the show. But since when in the world, can you just own two companies? We're somewhere in their neighborhood of like, 83 and, I don't know, 43 or 73 and 43 billion, and just be like they're the same thing. 100 billion done. I mean, that's what happens. It's pretty amazing that X, AI, was worth that much, that fast. It is wild, right? Double, almost double the valuation of x,

Paul J Daly:

and now it's Twitter back at the 45 billion, though. I mean, a lot of people thought, right, and bet on that going under, and advertisers are coming back, and boy, oh, boy, does x ai have quite, quite the treasure trove of real time human interactions to train itself. Oh, mine really does. I know, wow, I wish we and it's funny. Well, I guess we weren't talking about that, but we're talking about it now, and it's funny too. I'll tell you what, I've been using grok a lot more than chat GPT, just because it's so fast, dude, I don't have a GPT today, as slow as can be. And I know like Sam Altman over the weekend was like, Hey, guys, stop generating so many images. The team over here is having a hard time, right? Don't release it. They released it. It's really great. Our team is playing with a ton it is, it's fun. But rock, generally speaking, is like super fast with its responses. Yeah, just fun

Nathan Southwick:

fact about grok, sort of a automotive AI connection. Alex Lawrence, who owns Evi auto, but he also teaches AI classes. That's right at a college level. He posted recently, and he said he's been benchmarking things, and grok is the best that he's been seeing.

Paul J Daly:

I believe that, yeah, I'm sure. And it's probably gonna get better, faster, obviously.

Unknown:

Now, Kyle, did you know Alex Lawrence next EV auto locations Nashville? Yeah, he and I have been texting. We're gonna do some content down there. It's gonna be awesome. He he's like, three minutes away from the dealership that I ended my retail career at no area. I was like, Dude, there's such a good test driver out down there. Like, we're gonna hook it all up. It's gonna be

Paul J Daly:

so good. I saw that. I was like, instantly jealous, yep, that's gonna be that's a big it's gonna be a lot of fun. All right. All right. All right, enough of this. None of this nonsense. That's just It's not nonsense. It's the industry. It's the automotive State of the Union. But speaking of the automotive State of the Union, that's right to the top 150 dealer groups, the biggest names in auto retail, continued their dominance in 2024 with the top 150 dealership groups expanding their footprint and market share growth acquisitions and shifting strategies to find the ranking showing how consolidation is shaping the future of the industry. This is the auto mode of news. Top 150 by the way, like, there's like there's more than one the top 150 group sold over 4 million new vehicles in 2024 up 7.2% from the previous year. And now own 26.6 of all US franchise dealerships. Wow, over a quarter with just 150 groups up from just 13.9 in 2011 so in the last 10 plus years, their market share has doubled. That's, I mean, we've been talking about it, right? Like consolidation, the bigger getting bigger and fewer groups, more stores. Some of some of our friends on the list. We have a lot of friends on the list, but there's some that have been involved with the so do are very close with us.

Kyle Mountsier:

Maybe may or may not, be at a sodu con. Oh yeah, I know

Paul J Daly:

that's not I know that is happening. 140 number 140, demo train, group 134, our friends at Casa, the lowenfield family, obviously, uh, maybe not, obviously, but also investors and big believers in ASOTU. And what we're about this is their debut on the list. They had a great quote in the article say, We've never cut down the net like at March Madness after the final four. But we guess this is kind of what it might feel like. Uh, Number 83 Sam pack auto group number 80. Carter Myers automotive DG, DG at number 70. The Warman group going to be featured in an upcoming episode. Oh also. Carter Meyer is going to be featured in an upcoming episode of more than cars on season two. Roarman being featured in episode season two of more than cars. Roman at number 60. Our great friends at Berkshire auto group got down to number 58 McGovern group number 46 super close friend Greg CEO casino texted me this when the list came out. 43 baby and Liza little champagne, he told me last year he's targeted the top 50. He's like playing with the big boys now they moved up eight spots to crack the top 50. Walls are still so and strong at number 32 and Arsen at number 16, the top 10 reported owning top 10 groups reported owning 10.5% of US dealerships continuing the trend of industry consolidation, said Mary rates, Director of automotive news, research and data.

Kyle Mountsier:

Did you see the what happened with Lithia? I actually was not aware that they moved that much in one year. No, as far as, like, the number of dealerships that they had, so I think they they're up to 459 stores. I remember, like, like, talking about when they crossed 202

Unknown:

50. Yeah, it's crazy. Hey, we're home and on this list, because they they did quite a bit. They should be on our little friends and yeah list here. They're on there. Yeah, we'll have Carolinas from from their we'll have Bill Karis, who's a part of their investment group at ASOTU CON again this year.

Nathan Southwick:

So they jumped 17 points to number 15. Yeah, because

Kyle Mountsier:

they bought that yeah, they bought that group last year. That's right.

Paul J Daly:

Wow, that 32 to 15 in one year. Golly, they deserve it. They're working hard. Oh, it's right here in the

Kyle Mountsier:

show notes, there was, there was actually an article in our LinkedIn and daily email newsletters this morning, just about like there's so much projection for especially some of the foreign auto makers that are that are leaning in, like Toyota and BMW, of like, massive valuation still holding strong, and that that There's so much projection on a ton of transaction transactions this year at high value, similar to last year. So it's a it's a seller's market, for sure, at this point, speaking

Paul J Daly:

of high value, perfect. What a segway to start the week off? Uh, Toyota's hybrid strategy is paying off, maybe a little too well, sorry, global demand for its gas electric hybrids have outpaced supply, leaving customers facing long wait times and suppliers scrambling to keep up. Get this. Wait times for Toyota hybrids range from 60 days in Europe to nine months in India. Parts shortages, key components from suppliers like Azan and Denso are causing production bottlenecks, the ramping up output, including a $14 billion battery plant in North Carolina to ship batteries starting in April. Global hybrid, yeah. I mean, that's like tomorrow, yeah. I mean, they have less they have less days between shipping batteries from that plant than we do until soda con. And that's not a lot. Global hybrid sales nearly tripled over five years, hitting 16 point 1 million in 2024 the surging demand back to your valuations. This was covered in today's email. If you don't get it, by the way, go to asotu.com and get the daily email. It'll keep you up to date and make you laugh along the way, the surging demand has led to soaring dealership valuations across the US. According to Mercer capital, Toyota dealerships in Metro markets, particularly in Florida, can command valuation multiples. Get this as high as 10 times earnings in today's market, I hear that straight up,

Unknown:

SaaS multiples, right? Like

Kyle Mountsier:

multiples from a retail dealership That's staggering. That's staggering. We obviously saw the largest Toyota dealership in the country, acquired by Morgan last year or two years ago, I guess at this point, almost two years ago, year and a half. So that that trend is continuing, we've we know multiple Toyota dealerships that they. Have been told the day, supply is not going over 19, and most likely in the low teens. Still throughout the year, month of monthly Toyota is just on a rip and they're struggling to keep up with demand. But they're figuring it out. Then they figured out that supply and demand chain. However, if you're in India, sorry about your luck. I mean,

Paul J Daly:

Toyota was talking about their annual meeting this year that they knew market day supply was going to be super, super low. Here's a little levity of the situation. So I'm selling the V cruise to the Land Cruiser I bought. That's Gary vaynerchucks. I'm about to list it on cars and bids. So I'm so excited. I was going back over the weekend through emails back and forth with Matt Lasher and the West her team as we were trying to find Gary Vaynerchuk next vehicle. And I came across one line in one of the emails that I need to share. All right, it just said, for example, we currently have one Subaru on the ground. What? Yeah, that was the case back in the day during the inventory shortage we have. That's

Kyle Mountsier:

hot, yeah, that was, like, a couple years ago when everybody was dealing with that. So, I mean,

Paul J Daly:

whatever you think your inventory situation may be, if you're a Toyota dealer and you're low lower, you know, whoever it's like, remember that not too long ago when there was one new vehicle on the ground. I don't know. There's probably some stellantis dealers wishing that was the case. Yep, yeah, for sure. But that hey, never been a better time to be selling an American made Value Line.

Kyle Mountsier:

Speaking of American made Value Line, segue, you gotta read between the lines on that segue. It'll make sense

Paul J Daly:

in a second. Just pay attention.

Kyle Mountsier:

The class of 2025 is stepping into a tough job market with tech downturns, federal hiring freezes and economic uncertainty making it harder than ever for new grads secure stable careers. They're rethinking their career plans as public sector opportunities shrink. Government job applications nearly doubled in 2023 but hiring freezes have now put many positions on hold. Obviously, Doge cutting jobs it's hiring freezes the whole nine yards. Some federal job offers have even been rescinded, and funding dependent industries like nonprofits and universities are also feeling the squeeze, things like tariff concerns, which there's a lot of conversations going on between now and Thursday are making companies a little bit more hesitant to expand hiring and then Money Story students are prioritizing stability over passion, with some opting for private sector jobs over public service roles. The job market seems to super unstable in almost any field, says two lane sophomore Katie Schwartz, echoing the uncertainty many young job seekers feel, tell them about auto. Paul, Oh, tell them about it. If,

Paul J Daly:

if you're looking for your next passion, the retail auto industry would gladly accept you and give you a career path. It could be in marketing or sales or customer service or hospitality or technology, data analytics. What else do we have? Leadership roles, management, organizational management,

Kyle Mountsier:

real estate management, real estate management, like everything community Liza, community outreach, PR, organizations. PR, oh, just, you know, kind of runs the gamut planning, yeah, eventually, exactly, we got it all. I mean, like we, we keep saying this over and over, we know that the retail onto auto industry is an incredible career path. And there will be a day when all of these students are just going, Oh yeah, look, I know where I'm headed. I'm going into the retail auto industry, I'm going to Northwood. I'm going to study for this. I'm going to take the internship there. So, hey, look, reach out to these students. Find the local schools. Tell them you're hiring because they're having trouble. Tell them where it's at,

Paul J Daly:

yeah, you know, and the colleges too, meet those guidance counselors. This is a lot more. I mean, the smartest, the smartest dealerships are already doing this, but more should be doing this. And send them over. Show them an episode of more than cars. Show them what they're missing. Look, it's Monday, last day of the month. You have work to do. We have work to do. So get out there, take care of some people. We'll see you in April.

People on this episode

Contributor

Kyle Mountsier

Host
Contributor

Paul J Daly

Host